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pedro


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and yet another trial
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this weeks stats to 1pt win bfsp

 

32 selections...7 winners...21.8%

plus 11.89 pt at bfsp...no deduction

 

a disapointing strike rate this week with plenty hitting the crossbar...have eased my pain somewhat by backing at bfsp and putting in a lay bet to double my stake at 1.4 if the selection is 4 plus at the time or 1.2 if the price is less...this sacrifices a little profit on the winners but guarantees a profit on the race when everything turns green...we do love the all green lol

 

am taking on this trial at a tough time of year and after reviewing stats from february this year when the ratings were first recorded i can clearly see that things can only get much better IF history repeats

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Sunday 7th of December 2014 04:53:11 PM

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pedro


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mondays selections

 

clear top rated

 

dicoverie 145 muss...24/11...45.8%...5/2 bv

razor wind 300 ling...10/4...40%...6/4 skyb

 

60% + historical strike rate

 

lujeanie 330 ling...16/5...31.2%...7/2 bv

zwan awal 410 kemp...20/6...30%...2/1 skyb

stellarta 440 kemp...32/11...34.3%...5/2 boyles

 

top rated v

 

fly vinnie 220 muss...37%...10 betfair

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

mondays selections

 

a proper poor day with hardly a decent run no

 

clear top rated

 

dicoverie 145 muss...24/11...45.8%...5/2 bv...unp 3.5

razor wind 300 ling...10/4...40%...6/4 skyb...2nd 2.22

 

60% + historical strike rate

 

lujeanie 330 ling...16/5...31.2%...7/2 bv...unp 4.10

zwan awal 410 kemp...20/6...30%...2/1 skyb...unp 2.75

stellarta 440 kemp...32/11...34.3%...5/2 boyles...unp 4.30

 

top rated v

 

fly vinnie 220 muss...37%...10 betfair...unp 12.31

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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tuesdays selections

 

clear top rated

 

moss on the mill 110 font...30/12...40%...5/2 coral

offshore 230 south...16/6...37.5%...5/2 bv

positive vibes 250 uttox...5/3...60%...15/8 bv

jigsaw financial 340 font...29/14...48.2%...11/8 bv

 

60%+ historical strike rate

 

admirable art 100 south...4/0...0%...7/4 bv

global power 210 font...1/1...100%...2/1 boyles

 

top rated v

 

bajardo 240 font...34.5%...12/1 bv

 

pedro



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pedro


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some good work completed this morning...a system for the aw only...past performance says that top rated runners with a rating of 80+ in fields off 8 or less runners should produce nice long term profits

 

one today

master dan 330 south

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

tuesdays selections

 

another disapointing day with just the one winner no

 

clear top rated

 

moss on the mill 110 font...30/12...40%...5/2 coral...unp 3.4

offshore 230 south...16/6...37.5%...5/2 bv...1st 3.46

positive vibes 250 uttox...5/3...60%...15/8 bv...unp 2.98

jigsaw financial 340 font...29/14...48.2%...11/8 bv...unp 3.59

 

60%+ historical strike rate

 

admirable art 100 south...4/0...0%...7/4 bv...unp 2.57

global power 210 font...1/1...100%...2/1 boyles...2nd nk 3.55

 

top rated v

 

bajardo 240 font...34.5%...12/1 bv...3rd 17.67...1.52 in running

 

aw top rated 8 or less run

 

master dan 330 south...unp 2.67

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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things have been running hot and cold here and am more concerned with finding some consistency...have spent many hours over the past few days looking at historical results and have reached the conclusion that races with 8 runners or less and candidates with an historical strike rate of 50% or better should  be the answer so all change for now but sticking with the top rated v regardless of field size...most days should bring only a handful of selections

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

holiday magic 200 ling...67 ran...70% won...11/4 bv

cafe au lait 310 leic...112 ran...54% won...15/2 sj

mrs grass 320 hex...84 ran...51% won...33/1 sj

jagonary 410 kemp...130 ran...54% won...12/1 bv

 

no other top rated v

 

pedro



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Annie


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Best of luck with the tweaking Pedro.- much better to have fewer selects biggrin

I'll try to assess any in running benefits with them-

Annie 



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

things have been running hot and cold here and am more concerned with finding some consistency...have spent many hours over the past few days looking at historical results and have reached the conclusion that races with 8 runners or less and candidates with an historical strike rate of 50% or better should  be the answer so all change for now but sticking with the top rated v regardless of field size...most days should bring only a handful of selections

 

cheers annie...no great shakes today as we break even

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

holiday magic 200 ling...67 ran...70% won...11/4 bv...1st 4.04

cafe au lait 310 leic...112 ran...54% won...15/2 sj...unp 13

mrs grass 320 hex...84 ran...51% won...33/1 sj...unp 13

jagonary 410 kemp...130 ran...54% won...12/1 bv...unp 17.55

 

no other top rated v

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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thursdays selects

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

wentworth falls 450 kemp...42 ran...76.19 won...1/1 bv

big bazz 620 kemp...119 ran...63.03% won...7/4 boyles

 

top rated v

 

captain sharpe 120 nc...45%...16/1 bv

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

thursdays selects

 

a super day here with another top rated v doing the business biggrin

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

wentworth falls 450 kemp...42 ran...76.19 won...1/1 bv...1st 1.71

big bazz 620 kemp...119 ran...63.03% won...7/4 boyles...2nd nk 4

 

top rated v

 

captain sharpe 120 nc...45%...16/1 bv...1st 21...biggrin

hit 150 ir...had some pennies on at 500 no

 

pedro

 



-- Edited by pedro on Thursday 11th of December 2014 07:51:54 PM

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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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fridays selects

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

handazan 230 bang...6 ran...66.67% won...11/4 boyles

elbereth 500 wolv...22 ran...77.27% won...6/5 pp

 

am watching for a drift in the market on this one...9/1 bookie or 10 betfair will do

 

guiding george 315 chelt

 

pedro

 

 



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

fridays selects

 

a good day biggrin

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

handazan 230 bang...6 ran...66.67% won...11/4 boyles...1st 3.5

elbereth 500 wolv...22 ran...77.27% won...6/5 pp...1st 1.99

 

am watching for a drift in the market on this one...9/1 bookie or 10 betfair will do

 

guiding george 315 chelt...3rd 7.58...no bet price not reached

 

pedro

 

 

 



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pedro


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a very quiet saturday here

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

frontier fighter 115 south...174 ran...58.05% won...13/8 bf

 

no top rated v

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Saturday 13th of December 2014 09:30:35 AM

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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

a very quiet saturday here

 

nowt down today no

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

frontier fighter 115 south...174 ran...58.05% won...13/8 bf...3rd 3.3

 

no top rated v

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Saturday 13th of December 2014 09:30:35 AM

 



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pedro


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no selections today...weekly p/l later

 

pedro



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pedro


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a marked improvement since tweaking things on wednesday and would be surprised if we don't see a marked improvement in strike rate by this time next week

 

week 2 stats...24 selects...6 won...25%...plus 11.70 at bfsp...no deduction

monthly stats...56 selects...13 won...23.2%...plus 23.29 at bfsp...no deduction

 

pedro



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pedro


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has taken me what seems ages to get around what represents value using these ratings...my first problem came when the database crashed on day 2 of the launch...i had serious doubts that the recorded results were not 100% accurate as i noted a few discrepancies...it turns out my suspicions were correct and have been assured by the site that everything is 100% now...i believe them as after checking over them every day for the past month the stats are consistent...my next problem is that i have missed untold what i call top rated v over the past couple of months (2 in the last 2 days)...no point in crying over spilt milk as there are several reasons for this...most common is a market drifter and it is not possible to see these ahead off the race...so am changing my approach to v...am using a chart to determine possible v and will be placing bets just before the off...v is now based on historical strike rate in conjunction with bfsp

 

v table on top rated selects

 

70% + historical strike rate...a bet at 2.00+ bfsp

50% + hsr...a bet at 4.00 +

40% + hsr...a bet at 5.00 +

35% + hsr...a bet at 6.00 +

30% + hsr...a bet at 8.00 +

25% + hsr...a bet at 10 +

 

this should be ok fine and will post up possible candidates in addition to the main selects...here is the one missed today with its historical stats...as you can see it was a drifter with an early bfsp of 7

 

12:05 Sthl Chase - Handicap - Distance:4510Yds Runners:8 () Class: 4
NoRunnerRatingScore
(max 15)		Early BSP RankEarly BSP
1Billy Cuckoo134.79510
2Forresters Folly33.95750
3King Rolfe136.3847
4Riddlestown90.38610.5
5Trojan Sun41.8613.85
6Tafika85.6534.9
7Coeur De Fou68.7524.3
8Allerton93.27 0
System Builder
Race Type
 
Bet Type
   
Stake Size
 
Bank Size
   
Score>= - <=
Ratings>= - <=
Runners>= - <=
BSP>= - <=
 

These are back selections. Stake is 1 Points. Start Bank is 100
A point can be anything you want but often people class 1 point as £1 or 1% of their bank.

Month By Month

 

MonthYearSelectionsWinsS/RAWOP/L
32014912527.472.34-10.42
42014601423.333.561.32
52014541833.333.4522.97
6201424729.172.751.26
72014391025.643.786.9
8201441819.513.47-6.67
92014541425.932.48-7.04
102014752330.673.3922.07
1120141443826.392.81-4.4
1220144411254.19.86
10 Months 62.6 APM   3.59 APM

 

Statistics

 

Total Selections:Total WinsTotal LosersLLRStrike RateLDDProfit (points)AWOROI
6261684581526.84%26.7335.874.095.73



-- Edited by pedro on Sunday 14th of December 2014 09:25:57 PM



-- Edited by pedro on Monday 15th of December 2014 09:22:18 AM

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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Status: Offline
Posts: 2399
Date:
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mondays selects

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

prima porta 205 ff...107 ran...55.14% won...15/8 skyb

brantingham breeze 220 plum...11 ran...54.55% won...2/1 bv

 

possible top rated v

 

supreme bob 130 ff...@ 10 bfsp

pivotman 155 wolv...@ 4 bfsp

fujin dancer 230 wolv...@ 5 bfsp

into the wind 325 plum...@ 5 bfsp

dire straits 340 wolv...@ 5 bfsp

leonard thomas 540 wolv...@ 5 bfsp

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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pedro wrote:

mondays selects

 

a poor day for the main selects but am sure compensation awaits...some great runs from the v selects but none reaching their price...may have set the bar too high but time will tell

 

top rated...8 or less run...50% + historical strike rate

 

prima porta 205 ff...107 ran...55.14% won...15/8 skyb...pu 4.2

brantingham breeze 220 plum...11 ran...54.55% won...2/1 bv...unp 2.9

 

possible top rated v...no bets today

 

supreme bob 130 ff...@ 10 bfsp...2nd sh...5.1

pivotman 155 wolv...@ 4 bfsp...1st...1.83

fujin dancer 230 wolv...@ 5 bfsp...1st...4.39

into the wind 325 plum...@ 5 bfsp...unp...4.70

dire straits 340 wolv...@ 5 bfsp...2nd...3.78

leonard thomas 540 wolv...@ 5 bfsp...2nd...3.93

 

pedro

 



__________________

when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


Guru

Status: Offline
Posts: 2399
Date:
Permalink   
 

has taken me what seems ages to get around what represents value using these ratings...my first problem came when the database crashed on day 2 of the launch...i had serious doubts that the recorded results were not 100% accurate as i noted a few discrepancies...it turns out my suspicions were correct and have been assured by the site that everything is 100% now...i believe them as after checking over them every day for the past month the stats are consistent...my next problem is that i have missed untold what i call top rated v over the past couple of months (2 in the last 2 days)...no point in crying over spilt milk as there are several reasons for this...most common is a market drifter and it is not possible to see these ahead off the race...so am changing my approach to v...am using a chart to determine possible v and will be placing bets just before the off...v is now based on historical strike rate in conjunction with bfsp

 

v table on top rated selects

 

70% + historical strike rate...a bet at 2.00+ bfsp

50% + hsr...a bet at 3.50 +

40% + hsr...a bet at 5.00 +

35% + hsr...a bet at 6.00 +

30% + hsr...a bet at 8.00 +

25% + hsr...a bet at 10 +

 

this should be ok fine and will post up possible candidates in addition to the main selects...here is the one missed today with its historical stats...as you can see it was a drifter with an early bfsp of 7

 

12:05 Sthl Chase - Handicap - Distance:4510Yds Runners:8 () Class: 4
NoRunnerRatingScore
(max 15)		Early BSP RankEarly BSP
1Billy Cuckoo134.79510
2Forresters Folly33.95750
3King Rolfe136.3847
4Riddlestown90.38610.5
5Trojan Sun41.8613.85
6Tafika85.6534.9
7Coeur De Fou68.7524.3
8Allerton93.27 0
System Builder
Race Type
 
Bet Type
   
Stake Size
 
Bank Size
   
Score>= - <=
Ratings>= - <=
Runners>= - <=
BSP>= - <=
 

These are back selections. Stake is 1 Points. Start Bank is 100
A point can be anything you want but often people class 1 point as £1 or 1% of their bank.

Month By Month

 

MonthYearSelectionsWinsS/RAWOP/L
32014912527.472.34-10.42
42014601423.333.561.32
52014541833.333.4522.97
6201424729.172.751.26
72014391025.643.786.9
8201441819.513.47-6.67
92014541425.932.48-7.04
102014752330.673.3922.07
1120141443826.392.81-4.4
1220144411254.19.86
10 Months 62.6 APM   3.59 APM

 

Statistics

 

Total Selections:Total WinsTotal LosersLLRStrike RateLDDProfit (points)AWOROI
6261684581526.84%26.7335.874.095.73



-- Edited by pedro on Sunday 14th of December 2014 09:25:57 PM



-- Edited by pedro on Monday 15th of December 2014 09:22:18 AM



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
Permalink   
 

tuesdays selects

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

best tamayuz 1225 south...44 ran...75% won...2/1 bv

artistic queen 1255 south...169 ran...51.48% won...11/2 bv

shackled n drawn 250 kemp...4 ran...75% won...11/8 bv

mountainside 450 kemp...3 ran...66.67% won...6/4 coral

 

possible top rated v

 

danceintothelight 1210 catt...@ 8+

dark and dangerous 110 catt...@ 8+

milady eileen 155 south...@ 3.50+

harris 210 catt...@ 8+

dream ruler 220 kemp...@ 5+

rambo will 230 south...@ 10+

salvatore fury 320 kemp...@ 3.50+

thorpe bay 330 south...@ 5+

habeshia 520 kemp...@ 3.50+

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Tuesday 16th of December 2014 10:37:34 AM

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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
Permalink   
 

pedro wrote:

tuesdays selects

 

yikes!!!! what a horrible day no

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

best tamayuz 1225 south...44 ran...75% won...2/1 bv...2nd 3.25

artistic queen 1255 south...169 ran...51.48% won...11/2 bv...3rd 5.9

shackled n drawn 250 kemp...4 ran...75% won...11/8 bv...1st 1.90

mountainside 450 kemp...3 ran...66.67% won...6/4 coral...non runner

 

possible top rated v

 

danceintothelight 1210 catt...@ 8+...unp 9.44

dark and dangerous 110 catt...@ 8+...no bet

milady eileen 155 south...@ 3.50+...unp 3.5

harris 210 catt...@ 8+...unp 11.5

dream ruler 220 kemp...@ 5+...unp 5.8

rambo will 230 south...@ 10+...unp 10.10

salvatore fury 320 kemp...@ 3.50+...no bet

thorpe bay 330 south...@ 5+...3rd 6.43

habeshia 520 kemp...@ 3.50+....unp 3.63

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Tuesday 16th of December 2014 10:37:34 AM

 



__________________

when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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wednesdays selects

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

razor wind 235 ling...4 ran...100% won...1/1 coral

ruzeiz 340 ling...146 ran...54.79% won...11/4 coral

 

possible top rated v

 

valco de touzaine 120 lud...10+

martin cash 140 newb...10+

murtys delight 150 lud...10+

planetoid 200 ling...5+

als memory 310 ling...5+

welsh sunrise 510 kemp...8+

classic pursuit 540 kemp...5+

nigels destiny 540 kemp...2+

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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yikes....just clocked that am doing my v calculations all wrong no...so here is the updated v price

 

wednesdays selects

 

top rated...8 or less runners...50% + historical strike rate

 

razor wind 235 ling...4 ran...100% won...1/1 coral

ruzeiz 340 ling...146 ran...54.79% won...11/4 coral

 

possible top rated v

 

valco de touzaine 120 lud...10+

martin cash 140 newb...10+

murtys delight 150 lud...10+

planetoid 200 ling...8+

als memory 310 ling...10+

welsh sunrise 510 kemp...does not qualify

classic pursuit 540 kemp...10+

nigels destiny 540 kemp...8+

haines 710 kemp...8+  an addition



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