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pedro


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RE: and yet another trial
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been out and just in...aw ratings are up now and missed the 145...just as well as the 2nd rated won it with a 50% + sr forecast

2 to add

clear top rated

tayma 425 wolv...76%...6/4 bv


top rated 50+

sleep walk 320 wolv...54.72%...9/4 stan james

pedro



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Cookiebiscuit7


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going well again :)


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pedro


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pedro wrote:

a bit of trouble posting on here this morning...no aw ratings up yet which is very unusual but plenty on the nh

 

another good day that was so nearly a very very good day with torrentiale rain going down by a neck and after a stewards enquiry the result stands no...overall biggrin

clear top rated

noble friend 155 plum...62.5%...4/1 sky bet...pulled up
tinker time 205 kemp...no stats...6/1 stan james...1st 10.93
tothemoonandback 225 plum...no stats...4/5 stan james...1st 2.24
torrentiale raine 400 plum...50%...16/1...stan james...2nd...nk
presenting arms 415 kemp...100%...11/10 ladbrokes...1st 2.38


top rated 50%+

utopie des bordes 235 kemp...78.53%...8/1 bv...2nd 9.19

 

clear top rated

tayma 425 wolv...76%...6/4 bv...unplaced


top rated 50+

sleep walk 320 wolv...54.72%...9/4 stan james...unplaced

 

as well as win bets on these have been making a small fortune on ew doubles on those available at 4/1 or better...fingers crossed for more of this biggrin

 



pedro

 



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pedro


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todays lot


clear top rated


balder success 215 exet...no stats...10/3 william hill

norfolk sound 640 kemp...72.73%...2/1 bv


top rated with a 50% plus strike rate


strike a light 200 red...55.66%...4/1 boylesport

moidore 310 south...75%...9/2 bv

glorious sun 610 kemp...69.39%...5/2 coral

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pedro


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pedro wrote:

todays lot

 

an overdue poor day...better luck tomorrow ???


clear top rated


balder success 215 exet...no stats...10/3 william hill...2nd 5.8

norfolk sound 640 kemp...72.73%...2/1 bv...unplaced


top rated with a 50% plus strike rate


strike a light 200 red...55.66%...4/1 boylesport...unplaced

moidore 310 south...75%...9/2 bv...unplaced

glorious sun 610 kemp...69.39%...5/2 coral...2nd 3.4

 



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pedro


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update of stats since last update

 

57 selects...19 winners...33.33 %

lsp at bfsp...no commission deducted + 50.72 pt

 

so since start of trial

 

90 selects...28 winners...31.11%

lsp at bfsp...+ 61.47 point ncd

longest losing sequence = 9

 

the strike rate is still much lower than expected as the system builder has most of these as a 50% + chance...could be the time of year...dunno...the lsp is very good with less than a months trial completed

 

compared to other ratings i have used the top rated here have an outstanding strike rate...racing post ratings as an example have a annual strike rate of around 26% year in and out...the problem with them is that most are short priced and well supported...very difficult to turn a profit without adding some filters...we have seen some lovely prices so far with these and am growing more confident a profit will be had over the longer term

 

we keep logging as much details as we can and after a couple of months we can review and look for the best angles

 

so far so good...fingers crossed for more of the same...stats updated every monday

 

pedro



-- Edited by pedro on Tuesday 4th of November 2014 08:36:04 PM

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pedro


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had a closer look at month by month strike rate this morning and can confirm a definite slump starting in sept so looks like we are playing off peak here...who cares lol

 

clear top rated

snow cloud 1220 nott 84.21...6/5 stan james

planetoid 100 warw 66.67...9/2 bv

tullyesker hill 240 chep 87.5...4/1 bv

basford ben 350 chep no stats...8/1 365

evening rain 640 kemp 100...13/8 boylesport

 

top rated 50%+

khatiba 740 kemp 63.35...5/2 bv

fickle feelings 810 kemp...10/3 stan james

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

had a closer look at month by month strike rate this morning and can confirm a definite slump starting in sept so looks like we are playing off peak here...who cares lol

 

perhaps a tad unlucky today with 2 crossbars beaten a head...a small loss recorded no...from tomorrow will be changing strike rate stats since september...october and so far in november...hopefully we can get a more accurate forecast of our chances

 

clear top rated

snow cloud 1220 nott 84.21...6/5 stan james...2nd 2.94

planetoid 100 warw 66.67...9/2 bv...unplaced 10.66

tullyesker hill 240 chep 87.5...4/1 bv...1st 5.59

basford ben 350 chep no stats...8/1 365...pulled up 9.4

evening rain 640 kemp 100...13/8 boylesport...unp 2.65

 

top rated 50%+

khatiba 740 kemp 63.35...5/2 bv...2nd 5.4

fickle feelings 810 kemp...10/3 stan james...unplaced 3

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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this looks better...just visited the system builder and looked at the stats from september onwards

 

clear top rated

snow cloud 1220 nott 84.21...6/5 stan james.......4 ran with 50% winning

planetoid 100 warw 66.67...9/2 bv....5 ran with 60% winning

tullyesker hill 240 chep 87.5...4/1 bv...7 ran with 57.14 winning

basford ben 350 chep no stats...8/1 365...no stats

evening rain 640 kemp 100...13/8 boylesport...none ran with 3 from 3 winning in the summer

 

top rated 50%+

khatiba 740 kemp 63.35...5/2 bv...20 ran with 25% winning

fickle feelings 810 kemp 50...10/3 stan james...29 ran with 27.5 % winning

 

think this explains why my expected strike rate is lower than the stats...we live...we learn lol

 

pedro

 

 



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pedro


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busy day here

 

clear top rated

 

amilliontimes 100 muss...9/2 sj...20 ran/9 won...45%

boherna lady 110 tow...11/4 lads...7 ran/4 won...57.1%

star presenter 210 tow...3/1 bv...no stats

right to rule 230 muss...13/2 365...30 ran/14 won...46.6%

ballyheigue 240 tow...14/1 sj...7 ran/4 won...57.1%

nexius 300 muss...5/2 365...5 ran/3 won...60%

your cool 510 wolv...2/1 wh...8 ran/2 won...25% no bet here at the price

maverick wave 740 wolv...5/2 bv...13 ran/4 won...30.7%...risky one at the price

kalaatah 810 wolv...6/4 bv...2 ran/0 won...another no bet here

 

top rated 50% + over the past 7 months

 

mr maynard 1250 fake...9/2 sj....17 ran/9 won...52%

the fairy 540 wolv...5/2 bv...9 ran/3 won...33.3%

 

thats a mouthfull

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

busy day here

 

it was looking like one of those ouch days early on but at the end of the day only a small loss recorded at bfsp...fingers crossed for tomorrow

 

clear top rated

 

amilliontimes 100 muss...9/2 sj...20 ran/9 won...45%...2nd 4.9

boherna lady 110 tow...11/4 lads...7 ran/4 won...57.1%...unplaced 4.2

star presenter 210 tow...3/1 bv...no stats...3rd 6

right to rule 230 muss...13/2 365...30 ran/14 won...46.6%...pulled up 7.2

ballyheigue 240 tow...14/1 sj...7 ran/4 won...57.1%...unplaced 9.8

nexius 300 muss...5/2 365...5 ran/3 won...60%...1st 4.5

your cool 510 wolv...2/1 wh...8 ran/2 won...25%...unplaced 3.4

maverick wave 740 wolv...5/2 bv...13 ran/4 won...30.7%...3rd 2.9

kalaatah 810 wolv...6/4 bv...2 ran/0 won...1st 2.75

 

top rated 50% + over the past 7 months

 

mr maynard 1250 fake...9/2 sj....17 ran/9 won...52%...unplaced 4.9

the fairy 540 wolv...5/2 bv...9 ran/3 won...33.3%...1st 2.89...gamble landed

 

thats a mouthfull

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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been reviewing the ratings in the wee hours this morning and keep coming across big priced winners not detected by me...am going to call these top rated v (value)...basically any top rated that is priced between 10 and 25 bfsp...here is an example of one that occured yesterday

 

15:40 Towc Chase - Handicap - Distance:4840Yds Runners:10 (9) Class: 5
NoRunnerRatingScore
(max 15)		ResultBSPSPBSP PlaceBSP Rank
-1Tenby Jewel8.900000000000014NF29215.568
-1Nalim-83.24NF8.5173.15
1Le Grand Chene124.68117.73154.217
2Monty<>s Revenge-9.100000000000026215133.66
3I<>m In Charge72.4634.793.51.952
4Bob Will-3.60000000000001646.7162.243
5Jolly Boys Outing-98458.272.514
6Bill The Lad100.1864.341.931
7King Ozzy36.76747.8348.4

9

 

back after the school run with todays lot



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pedro


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aw database now includes past 10 months stats but % based on last 3 months...another busy one

 

clear top rated

carhue princess 140 font...no stats...15/6 sj

brave buck 150 hex...no stats...9/4 bv

first fandango 200 muss...39/14...36%...5/1 bv

itoldyou 210 font...no stats...9/2 bv

wakhan 220 hex...no stats...15/8 bv

high note 240 font...25/11...44%...15/2 sb

american life 340 font...42/15...36%...4/1 bv

spinning cobler 435 wolv...22/8...36%...9/4 bv

ridgeway storm 710 wolv...21/7...33%...5/2 sj

daree 740 wolv...5/1...20%...2/1 bv

el mirage 810 wolv...34/10...29%...5/1 bv

 

50% + over past 10 months

bush beauty 510 wolv...30/10...33%...10/3 boylesport

 

will be backing these if bfsp is between 10 and 25

dell grove 300 muss

omid 350 hex

ballista 610 wolv

 

another mouthful

pedro



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pedro


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it is nice to look back on things and see what can be pulled from everything recorded...that is why i record as much as possible...is very early days here to draw any definite angles but is my nature to try and find some as we go along...am not one that is keen on too many plays a day and am usually happy with one or two so this trial makes me a bit on the nervy side lol

 

one angle noted (no guarantee it will continue but i hope it does) is that since starting to record the bookies best price...backing those at 4/1 plus only you get

33 plays

11 winners...33%

lsp at bfsp no deduction...plus 51.76 pt

very nice indeed...fingers crossed for more of that

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

aw database now includes past 10 months stats but % based on last 3 months...another busy one

 

another pretty decent day with a nice profit made biggrin

 

clear top rated

carhue princess 140 font...no stats...15/8 sj...unplaced 3.75

brave buck 150 hex...no stats...9/4 bv...1st...3.60

first fandango 200 muss...39/14...36%...5/1 bv...1st 7.00

itoldyou 210 font...no stats...9/2 bv...2nd 7.00

wakhan 220 hex...no stats...15/8 bv...unplaced 3.20

high note 240 font...25/11...44%...15/2 sb...unplaced 7.20

american life 340 font...42/15...36%...4/1 bv...1st 5.60

spinning cobler 435 wolv...22/8...36%...9/4 bv...1st 6.00

ridgeway storm 710 wolv...21/7...33%...5/2 sj...3rd 2.66

daree 740 wolv...5/1...20%...2/1 bv...broke down nono

el mirage 810 wolv...34/10...29%...5/1 bv...2nd 6.12

 

50% + over past 10 months

bush beauty 510 wolv...30/10...33%...10/3 boylesport...unplaced 5.39

 

will be backing these if bfsp is between 10 and 25

dell grove 300 muss...no bet

omid 350 hex...no bet

ballista 610 wolv...unplaced 14.5

 

another mouthful

pedro

 



-- Edited by pedro on Friday 7th of November 2014 08:23:23 PM

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pedro


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something deffo not right with todays chase ratings...will check later...some nice prices on offer today...fingers crossed

 

clear top rated

kilmurvy 1245 sand...29/8...27.5%...11/2 bv

samstown 140 kelso...15/7...47%...9/2 boyle

levitate 150 donc...86/30...34.8%...11/2 bv

miss peachey 205 winc...65/17...26.1%...9/1 bv

kashmir peak 305 sand...30/8...26.6%...12/1 sj

rock on ruby 315 winc...38/15...39.4%...11/2 bv

 

50% +

anonymous john 115 donc...8/5...62.5%...9/4 sj

mount logan 335 donc...31/13...41.9%...14/1 bv

 

top rated v if 10 to 25 bfsp

kiwi bay 405 donc

 

pedro



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Annie


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A good day yesterday apart from Daree cry

I managed to get about x2 the odds in running on a couple of them.biggrin

Good luck today 



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pedro


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nice one annie biggrin am off out for the day so won't be watching so fingers crossed for some decent runs

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

something deffo not right with todays chase ratings...will check later...some nice prices on offer today...fingers crossed

 

another blinding day here and am expecting an email from the bet victor for mercy with these ew doubles lol biggrin...have been in contact with the ratings site and thanked them for the first class ratings and they were intending to have the chase ratings up and running today with full stats but as it turned out it all went t.ts up...they are hoping to provide a full service by early next week....yipeeeeeeee

 

clear top rated

kilmurvy 1245 sand...29/8...27.5%...11/2 bv...unplaced 6.6

samstown 140 kelso...15/7...47%...9/2 boyle...1st 8.8

levitate 150 donc...86/30...34.8%...11/2 bv...1st 5.62

miss peachey 205 winc...65/17...26.1%...9/1 bv...unplaced 11.5

kashmir peak 305 sand...30/8...26.6%...12/1 sj...2nd 17.6

rock on ruby 315 winc...38/15...39.4%...11/2 bv...3rd 5.9

 

50% +

anonymous john 115 donc...8/5...62.5%...9/4 sj...1st 2.74

mount logan 335 donc...31/13...41.9%...14/1 bv...unplaced 17.5

 

top rated v if 10 to 25 bfsp

kiwi bay 405 donc...no bet...yikes just clocked it got a place at 11.8...not bad if you are a place punter biggrin

 

pedro

 



-- Edited by pedro on Saturday 8th of November 2014 04:42:16 PM

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pedro


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an update from the ratings site...am scared to look but will do laterno

 

Update  – 8th November

The Chase Ratings for today have now been fixed. Too late to use today I’m afraid but you have them for historical purposes.

We are aware that there is a problem with the Chase Ratings today and that is being investigated.
The historical Chase Ratings are now complete and the Chase Ratings should be available in System Builder and Selection Picker early next week .



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pedro


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alas...just the one that would have caught the eye as a possible top rated v...but would have been a no bet here

15:40 Sand Chase - Handicap - Distance:5390Yds Runners:9 () Class: 3
NoRunnerRatingScore
(max 15)		Early BSP RankEarly BSP
7Loch Ba74.9614.8
1Lookslikerainted80.2725.7
4Caulfields Venture58.9738.4
8Wilton Milan5.1648.8
5Saroque88.7759.2
6Woodford County52.1569.4
3Le Reve119.46711
2Beforeall86.36811.5
9Tullamore Dew-25.66914


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pedro


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todays hopefuls

 

all clear top rated

 

american legend 145 mr...no stats...11/4 bv

seventh sky 215 mr...no stats...7/2 coral

mollys a diva 235 ff...55/21...38%...3/1 bv

major milborne...310 ff...no stats...3/1 bv

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

todays hopefuls

 

no great shakes today but nothing lost either...perhaps our annie did better with her in running plays biggrin

 

all clear top rated

 

american legend 145 mr...no stats...11/4 bv...2nd 4.4

seventh sky 215 mr...no stats...7/2 coral...unplaced 4.7

mollys a diva 235 ff...55/21...38%...3/1 bv...1st 4.3

major milborne...310 ff...no stats...3/1 bv...unplaced 5.17

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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another busy day with a few looking short nuff

 

clear top rated

no through road 1230 south...no stats...11/8 coral

oriental splendour 215 kemp...18/6...33.3%...7/2 bv

spanish fleet 225 carl...8/4...50%...4/5 paddyp

holiday magic 250 kemp...8/2...25%...9/4 bv

shouldavboughtgold 330 carl...no stats...5/2 coral

definitely better 340 south...2/0...0%...6/5 sj

nigels destiny 420 kemp...14/3...21%...4/1 boyles

larghetto 550 kemp...31/9...29%...5/2

 

top rated 50% over 10 months

panatella 520 kemp...41/9...21.9%...5/2 bv

 

 

pedro

 



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Annie


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Morning Pedro

yes, got Mollys a Diva at around sp- I usually get them on early - and at 8.00 in running biggrin - note its recorded at 9.00

 

good luck today



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