a busy day today...ideal for trial but always a worry when the moneys down
kapricorne 140 ff...7/2 stan james...1st 3.95
geordan murphy 200 wind...15/8 coral...1st 4.60
so noble 230 wind *...6/5 boylesport...unplaced
henri parry morgan 240 ff...9/1 bet victor...3rd
trillerin minella 310 ff...7/1 bet365...1st 8.37
ballyvoneen 340 ff...8/1 bet 365...2nd
jollie blonde 350 catt *...13/8 bet victor...1st placed second...fpp saves the day here
lyfka 740 wolv *...11/8 bet victor...unplaced...unlucky in running
adding winning hunter 300 wind...11/4 bet victor...non runner
a very good day overall...it brings up the subject of bookie vs betfair...which is better ???...after years of pondering this question have concluded that they both have an advantage...betfair usually comes up trumps if your selection is off a bigger price but the bookies can offer best odds guaranteed and pay out on first past the post...as i like the best of both worlds i have accounts with all bookies offering bog and first past the post...i also have a betfair account and back all my selections with both...the best of both worlds i suppose you could say...for the purpose of this trial we will record things at bfsp to keep things simple
yes annie have seen plenty winners so far at juicy ir prices...food for thought no doubt
pedro
-- Edited by pedro on Tuesday 28th of October 2014 11:04:26 AM
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
am compiling a list of horses that the system builder says should have a better than 50% chance of winning that are not included in the selections because they are not clear top rated
a note of caution here as when doing some research i found a month when a losing sequence of eleven was encountered but the system still had a 50% win rate over the month and was in profit...just shows you how things can go
lightning spear 330 nott...9/2 boylesport
el macca 350 worc...7/4 sky bet
reposer 655 kemp...15/8 boylesport
pedro
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
am compiling a list of horses that the system builder says should have a better than 50% chance of winning that are not included in the selections because they are not clear top rated
a note of caution here as when doing some research i found a month when a losing sequence of eleven was encountered but the system still had a 50% win rate over the month and was in profit...just shows you how things can go
been at it since early this morning and was reviewing the ratings results...kept coming accross ones that i had apparently missed...whats going on here i am thinking how did you miss that ???
the answer = non runners
as i spend most mornings looking at the horses come race time when all bets are on it is common for me to have an afternoon siesta...not really bothered as the results wont change if i am watching
will have to change my ways as non runners can be important here
back in a bit with todays lot
pedro
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
a new feature today...after the selection will indicate the strike rate of the selection according to the system builder...this is based on the horses rating...their score...and number of declared runners...the figure represents the strike rate of horses with the same or better stats over the past 7 months
cheers annie
clear top rated
lightening rod 140 weth 40.67%...13/2 bv
doeslessthanme 215 weth (no stats available yet on chase races...soon come)...9/1 bv
carolina wren 300 uttox 85%...8/1 bv
lightscameraction 555 wolv 100%...3/1 bv
dark days 625 wolv 71.21%...5/2 bv
top rated that are not clear but have a 50% + strike rate
tayma 425 wolv 72.31%...15/8 365
pedro
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
a new feature today...after the selection will indicate the strike rate of the selection according to the system builder...this is based on the horses rating...their score...and number of declared runners...the figure represents the strike rate of horses with the same or better stats over the past 7 months
cheers annie
clear top rated
lightening rod 140 weth 40.67%...13/2 bv...1st 10
doeslessthanme 215 weth (no stats available yet on chase races...soon come)...9/1 bv...unseated rider
carolina wren 300 uttox 85%...8/1 bv...2nd
lightscameraction 555 wolv 100%...3/1 bv...2nd
dark days 625 wolv 71.21%...5/2 bv...1st 2.16...another gamble landed
top rated that are not clear but have a 50% + strike rate
tayma 425 wolv 72.31%...15/8 365...1st 3.21
another very good day
pedro
-- Edited by pedro on Friday 31st of October 2014 06:43:28 PM
-- Edited by pedro on Friday 31st of October 2014 06:48:00 PM
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
a bit of trouble posting on here this morning...no aw ratings up yet which is very unusual but plenty on the nh
clear top rated
noble friend 155 plum...62.5%...4/1 sky bet
tinker time 205 kemp...no stats...6/1 stan james
tothemoonandback 225 plum...no stats...4/5 stan james
torrentiale raine 400 plum...50%...16/1...stan james
presenting arms 415 kemp...100%...11/10 ladbrokes
top rated 50%+
utopie des bordes 235 kemp...78.53%...8/1 bv
back later if the aw ratings appear
pedro
__________________
when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up