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pedro


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RE: and yet another trial
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still learning daily here and been tinkering about with the system builder all morning...it tells me ew betting is not a good option and am not much of an ew punter anyway...also all historical data is based on bfsp and my mistake number two is trying to get on early and hope the market goes my way...also am coming to realize that value on the national hunt is vastly different on the aw...thus will be placing bets just before the off if the price is right...a pain in the neck in my eyes but a necesary pain it appears

 

national hunt...a bet at 10+bfsp

kastani beach...405 plump

petite ecuyar...230 plump

six one way & bobbits way 155 plump

 

aw...a bet at 2.5+ bfsp

harwoods star 325 wolv

ability to deliver 355 wolv

cape city 455 wolv



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

still learning daily here and been tinkering about with the system builder all morning...it tells me ew betting is not a good option and am not much of an ew punter anyway...also all historical data is based on bfsp and my mistake number two is trying to get on early and hope the market goes my way...also am coming to realize that value on the national hunt is vastly different on the aw...thus will be placing bets just before the off if the price is right...a pain in the neck in my eyes but a necesary pain it appears

 

national hunt...a bet at 10+bfsp

kastani beach...405 plump...1st 5.9...no bet

petite ecuyar...230 plump...unp...no bet

six one way & bobbits way 155 plump...unp...2nd...no bet...-1pt

 

aw...a bet at 2.5+ bfsp

harwoods star 325 wolv...unp...no bet

ability to deliver 355 wolv...2nd 3.05...-1pt

cape city 455 wolv...unp...no bet

 

day=-2pt

 



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pedro


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nh

riddlestown  350 fake...10+

 

aw...2.5+

elum mac 145 south

excelling oscar 215 south

canadian diamond 400 south

 

pedro

 

 



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

 

nh

riddlestown  350 fake...10+...unp -1pt

 

aw...2.5+

elum mac 145 south...2nd -1pt

excelling oscar 215 south...unp -1pt

canadian diamond 400 south...-1pt

 

day=-4pt

 

pedro

 

 

 



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pedro


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aw results have been very poor and will only be following what looks a very good value select...however these will be few and far between...i see a glimmer of hope with combination forecasts on the aw but will need to do some more research on this...nh looks to offer much more value selects and with a bit of patience should be ok fine

 

poss v at 10+

 

ohio gold 250 nb

 

pedro



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pedro


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this is based on limited research so we paper trial it for the time being...looks ok on paper but many thing do lol

 

aw combination forecasts

300...6-1-4...6pts staked...won 8.71
335...4-8-5...6pts staked...lost
410...1-5...2pt staked...lost
610...7-2-9...6pt staked...lost



-- Edited by pedro on Thursday 15th of January 2015 09:27:52 AM

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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

aw results have been very poor and will only be following what looks a very good value select...however these will be few and far between...i see a glimmer of hope with combination forecasts on the aw but will need to do some more research on this...nh looks to offer much more value selects and with a bit of patience should be ok fine

 

poss v at 10+

 

ohio gold 250 nb...unp...no bet

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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more work done on aw forecast and although the
combo forecast is in profit over the longer term there are some soul destroying days with heavy losses so will be playing just
a reverse forecast with 2 selects when conditions look right...none today but they should pop up regular enough...just 4 on
the nh today if the price is right

all 10+

last shot 205 winc
monkerty tunkerty 235 worc
scotsbrook legend 310 winc
houndscourt 320 mr

 

pedro



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

more work done on aw forecast and although the
combo forecast is in profit over the longer term there are some soul destroying days with heavy losses so will be playing just
a reverse forecast with 2 selects when conditions look right...none today but they should pop up regular enough...just 4 on
the nh today if the price is right

all 10+

last shot 205 winc...unp 14.44...-1pt
monkerty tunkerty 235 worc...1st matched at 10
scotsbrook legend 310 winc...unp 12.5...-1pt
houndscourt 320 mr...320 mr...unp matched at 10...-1pt

day= +6pt

 

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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have spent several hours on the system builder which now has full results from feb 2014...was concentrating on races with 8 declared runners or less (which i thought would not have that many races...how wrong i was)...then started tinkering around with the ratings to find the most profitable range...here is the results of the research

 

all 8 declared runners or less

 

aw...horses with a rating of 80+...975 selections...plus 366pt

hurdle...horses with a rating of 300+...206 selections...plus 218.88pt

chase...horses with a rating of 130+...1059 selections...plus 110 pt

 

a huge number of selections on the aw and chase which means in a lot of races there will be multiple plays

for the period feb 2014 to yesterday

2240 selects...plus 695pt...with approx 360 days racing a year it is an average of 6.2 plays per day

 

took a look at this months stats to see how they looked in comparison with the overall picture

 

jan to date

aw...58 plays...minus 4.44pt

hurdle...10 plays...minus 3.29pt

chase...57 plays...plus 22pt

 

plus...14.27 and the month half gone is deffo down on the average of 58pt per month but i would be happy with the profit and feel that things could only get better

 

so we try this approach for a bit and see if history can repeat

 

not busy today

 

the shrimp 1240 muss 9/2 lads

biting bullets 615 wolv 9/2 boyles

 

looks like no v today barring any non runners...will look again later

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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pedro wrote:

have spent several hours on the system builder which now has full results from feb 2014...was concentrating on races with 8 declared runners or less (which i thought would not have that many races...how wrong i was)...then started tinkering around with the ratings to find the most profitable range...here is the results of the research

 

all 8 declared runners or less

 

aw...horses with a rating of 80+...975 selections...plus 366pt

hurdle...horses with a rating of 300+...206 selections...plus 218.88pt

chase...horses with a rating of 130+...1059 selections...plus 110 pt

 

a huge number of selections on the aw and chase which means in a lot of races there will be multiple plays

for the period feb 2014 to yesterday

2240 selects...plus 695pt...with approx 360 days racing a year it is an average of 6.2 plays per day

 

took a look at this months stats to see how they looked in comparison with the overall picture

 

jan to date

aw...58 plays...minus 4.44pt

hurdle...10 plays...minus 3.29pt

chase...57 plays...plus 22pt

 

plus...14.27 and the month half gone is deffo down on the average of 58pt per month but i would be happy with the profit and feel that things could only get better

 

so we try this approach for a bit and see if history can repeat

 

not busy today

 

the shrimp 1240 muss 9/2 lads...unp...-1pt

biting bullets 615 wolv 9/2 boyles...2nd...-1pt

 

day=-2pt

 

looks like no v today barring any non runners...will look again later

 

pedro

 



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pedro


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saturdays hopefuls

 

multi plays

1-2...115 ascot
4-6-2...235 ling
6...325 taunt

v

candide 215 taunt 10 sj
shangani 315 hay 10 bv
fox appeal 335 asc...a bid at 10 on betfair

 

pedro



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Annie


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Very interesting stats there Pedro and excellent returns for the year overall biggrin

This is such a difficult game to get a hold off..things always changing that any + figures have to be seen as a success.

Best of luck , I'm sure all your hard work and patience will pay off biggrin

Annie



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pedro


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pedro wrote:

saturdays hopefuls

 

multi plays

1-2...115 ascot...1st 2...3/1 taken
4-6-2...235 linglost...-3pt
6...325 taunt...1st 3/1 taken

v

candide 215 taunt 10 sj...2nd...-1pt
shangani 315 hay 10 bv...unp...-1pt
fox appeal 335 asc...a bid at 10 on betfair...2nd...not matched

 

day=even

 

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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cheers annie...yes has been a journey and still lots to learn but with the database growing daily i must think things are in our favour...is nice to be able to do with a click of the mouse what would have taken me weeks or months to do manually...only one meeting today on the mainland and nothing ticking boxes so a day of rest today

 

pedro



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pedro


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mondays plays

 

somechine + brody bleu 320 exet...5/2...365...9/2...365

persona grata 340 wolvs...10/11 boyles

 

no v today

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

mondays plays

 

no joy today

 

somechine + brody bleu 320 exet...5/2...365...9/2...365...unp...2nd...-2pt

persona grata 340 wolvs...10/11 boyles...2nd -1pt

 

no v today

 

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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tuesdays plays

 

1-3-7 230 south...2/1 bv...5/2 bv...8/1 sj

1-8 305 south...13/8 bv...4/1 sj

 

no v today

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

tuesdays plays...got these prices in wrong order on earlier post so have corrected them...my game plan here is to back each with bookie offering best price with best odds guaranteed...will place a seperate bet on betfair at bfsp on the one that is the biggest price...this should be ok fine in the long term

 

1-3-7 230 south...8/1 sj...2/1 bv...5/2 bv

1-8 305 south...4/1 sj...13/8 bv

 

no v today

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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pedro wrote:
pedro wrote:

tuesdays plays...got these prices in wrong order on earlier post so have corrected them...my game plan here is to back each with bookie offering best price with best odds guaranteed...will place a seperate bet on betfair at bfsp on the one that is the biggest price...this should be ok fine in the long term

a good day biggrin

 

1-3-7 230 south...8/1 sj...2/1 bv...5/2 bv...1 won...9pt returned bookie...5.58 returned bf

1-8 305 south...4/1 sj...13/8 bv...no joy...minus 3pt

 

day=+7.58 pt

 

no v today

pedro

 

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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busy today

 

3+4... 1240 ayr...5/1 bv...7/2 bv

3+6... 135 catt...4/1 bv...4/1 boyles

4+1... 230 ling...6/4 coral...9/2 lads

3+1+7... 310 catt...6/1 bv...5/2 bv...6/1 coral

2... 325 ayr...3/1 bv

3+6+1...405 ling...5/2 bv...7/2 bv...8/1 bv

1+3...630 kemp...7/4 sj...11/4 bv

 

an additional point at bfsp on the biggest priced in each race and in races with one selection only

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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pedro wrote:

busy today

just about evens today

 

3+4... 1240 ayr...5/1 bv...7/2 bv...result...3-4...return 6.00 and 5.90...plus 8.90

3+6... 135 catt...4/1 bv...4/1 boyles...result 8-1-6...minus 3

4+1... 230 ling...6/4 coral...9/2 lads...result 4-1-3... return 2.50...minus .5

3+1+7... 310 catt...6/1 bv...5/2 bv...6/1 coral...result 1-3-7...return 3.50...plus .5

2... 325 ayr...3/1 bv...result 4-1-6....minus 2pt

3+6+1...405 ling...5/2 bv...7/2 bv...8/1 bv...result 3-5-1...return 3.50...plus .5

1+3...630 kemp...7/4 sj...11/4 bv...result 2-3-1...minus 3pt

 

an additional point at bfsp on the biggest priced in each race and in races with one selection only

22 pt staked= 21.40 retuned

day= minus .6pt

 

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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thursdays selects

 

1...220 warw...7/2 bv

3...230 fake....6/4 coral

1...310 south...2/1 bv

1 + 2...330 fake...7/4 bv...3/1 bv

2 + 3 + 4...340 south...3/1 bv...3/1 bv...10/3 365

1...400 fake...9/2 bv

3 + 1...510 chelm...7/4 bv...6/1 skyb

1 + 4 + 5...740 chelm...6/1 bv...11/4 bv...3/1 bv

 

value

 

vandross 250 warw...11/1 bv

 

pedro



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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Posts: 2399
Date:
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pedro wrote:

thursdays selects

 

1...220 warw...7/2 bv...r 6-1-2...-2pt

3...230 fake....6/4 coral...r 4-2-3...-2pt

1...310 south...2/1 bv...r 2-4-1...-2pt

1 + 2...330 fake...7/4 bv...3/1 bv...r 4-1-5...-2pt

2 + 3 + 4...340 south...3/1 bv...3/1 bv...10/3 365...r 6-3-1...-4pt

1...400 fake...9/2 bv...r 7-6-2...-1pt

3 + 1...510 chelm...7/4 bv...6/1 skyb...r 1-3-5...return 7.00 + 4.48

1 + 4 + 5...740 chelm...6/1 bv...11/4 bv...3/1 bv...r 4-1-2...return 4.00

 

value

 

vandross 250 warw...11/1 bv...unp -1pt

 

23 pt staked...15.48 returned

 

day = - 7.52

 

pedro

 



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when the going gets tough as it sometimes will...rest if you must but never give up
pedro


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fridays plays

 

1+3...115 ayr...3/1 sj...11/4 bv

4...215 donc...8/1 sj

5...220 ayr...5/2 bv

2...325 ayr...6/4 bv

2+1...340 ling...5/6 bv 9/2 bv

1...515 wolv...5/2 bv

 

pedro



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